Wooly Bear, What Wll WInter Wear?

School buses are running again.  Football, soccer and field hockey practices are in full swing. Fall decorations have made way into stores and roadside stands.

While the clock ticks down towards fall, fearless wooly bear caterpillars stop their munching and inch across highways as vehicles blow by.  Some of the critters will actually make it across roadways to find a spot to hide under debris, rocks or bark where they will wait out the winter. 

Some say that the nearly two inch bristly reddish brown and black striped caterpillar can predict how much cold and ice will come with the winter winds.  The banded wooly worm, as it is sometimes called, hatches from eggs laid by the Isabella Tiger Moth.  The yellowish adult moth lays a few dozen small white pearly looking eggs on old posts or trees in late spring and summer.  After hatching the small hairless larvae busily munch on nettle, dandelion, clover, sorrel and other common weeds.  As the larvae mature, the wooly bear grows and distinct hairy bands develop.

It’s the amount and the color of the hairy black and reddish brown bands that are said to predict whether winter will prove mild or not.   There is no definitive scientific evidence that guarantees the accuracy of predicting weather with wooly bears. The theory behind this weather prediction phenomenon goes something like this.  If the black stripes on either end of the critter are longer than the middle reddish stripe winter will be long and cold.  A wide center reddish or brown band indicates that winter will be mild.

So… based on a small sample of woolly bears that have come across my path recently I will take a stab at forecasting a winter weather outlook.   Some had wide black bands and some had wide reddish brown bands.  In fact they all looked different.   So which ones are right?  I’m going to go out on a limb and say that winter will be mild… or not.

 

My guess is that the woolly bear caterpillar is probably as accurate as predicting winter as Punxsutawney Phil is at predicting how many weeks of winter are left on Groundhog Day. 

The Farmer’s Almanac reports that some people take to reading the wooly bear to extremes.  Apparently there are 13 segments on a typical banded wooly bear.  Some believe that each band represents a week of winter.  Orange and brown segments are said to predict the mild weeks, and the black ones forecast bad weather weeks.

The almanac also reports that some weather sleuths look at the thickness of the wooly bear hair.  Thick fuzzy worms indicate a cold, snowy winter and a not so hairy worm means a milder one.  If you think that confuses the issue there are others who look at the direction the wooly bear is traveling for weather forecasting.   If the caterpillar heads north, it will prove to be a mild winter.  A crawl towards south and it is time to break out the shovels and rock salt.

The modern folklore of predicting wintry weather by following the wooly bear began in 1948 with Dr. C.H. Curran, curator of insects at the American Museum of Natural History in New York City after he drove to Bear Mountain State Park to look at the woolly bears.   Curran collected as many caterpillars as he could in a day.  He determined the number of reddish brown segments and hazarded a forecast with a reporter friend at the New York Herald Tribune.  Curran’s experimentation continued for the next eight years as he worked to prove scientifically the folklore weather rule that had been passed on through generations around Bear Mountain.  

When wooly bears begin to seek out hiding spaces for the winter, it is certain that fall is right around the corner and winter will follow.   The wooly bear doesn’t care. Burrowed down in a hidden spot, its body secretes a substance to help it survive the winter freeze.  When warm weather arrives the caterpillar begins a munching frenzy before spinning and encasing itself in a chrysalis.  A short time later a dull yellow and furry tiger moth with small black spots emerges.  After a brief period of mating and laying eggs the moth’s lifecycle will end. 

The transition from summer to fall comes with fanfare in rural South Jersey.  There are many events that celebrate both communities and the season.   The Woodstown Fall Festival is held the last Saturday in September throughout the town’s historic shopping district.  Along the streets scarecrows take shape as local businesses and individuals compete in a challenge to come up with the best display. Vendors, food, music and history make this a family friendly event.

Meals on Wheels Giant Pumpkin Carve draws thousands of visitors from the tri-state area each year as professional and amateur artists come together, turning giant pumpkins into spooky works of art.   On September 28, music, hayrides, food, and spooky fun celebrate the farming heritage, the cultural and artistic heritage of Salem County while raising important funds for a crucial service to elderly residents.

The following week, October 5, fall festivities continue with Elmer Harvest Day.   Roadside stands begin to break out the cider and crisp apples.  It’s a great time to get out and take a walk, work in the yard or take the grandchildren to pick out a pumpkin.  Fall is refreshing season, one to enjoy.  Winter will be here way too soon… so predicts the wooly bear.